Sport - The Ashes

England have won the Ashes! Hussey prods to short leg and that's it. It's all over! 

For cricket fans in England and Australia the greatest rivalry in international sport starts all over again in just 41 hours from now. As a fan, follower and commentator on all things cricket for 41 years I'd like to think it's worth you listening to what I have to say. All things being equal (unlike, say, a Pakistan one-day international) you may even make a few quid. Primarily, however, this column exists to reflect on the glory of an enthralling international contest - and to whinge at Kevin Pietersen and his damaged ego of ever diminishing returns (Shane Warne was right).

Outside of America and it's glorified game of rounders cricket produces statistics unrivalled in any other sport. That's largely down to the nature of a game that produces hundreds of runs in every match as opposed to say "Northampton Town 0 Crewe Alexandra 1". I also suspect it's a legacy of cricket's public school backdrop that determines a sport can only be erudite if it can be intellectualized and analysed through empirical evidence. The paradoxes of course are that public schools in England are anything but public and that cricket statistics are the eponymous epitome of 'lies, damn lies and statistics'.

Take the 2009 Ashes averages. Australia had six players averaging over 40 (the Holy Grail representing a decent performance) while England had just two, one of whom, Jonathan Trott, had only played one game. Four Australian bowlers took wickets at under 33 - England had just two. All of which suggests Australia more than just edged a series victory. England, of course, won the series 2-1 and go into the 1st Test at Brisbane tomorrow (23.30 GMT) as holders of the urn. So much for statistics.

Ponting - Man under Pressure

Australia may be favourites with the bookmakers, playing at home where they haven't lost a series against England since the last millenium (and boy does it feel like a whole millenium) but in the current climate, where Australia are having to analyse defeats instead of victories and come into the series on the back of a 2-0 loss in India it's not unreasonable for English fans to have some genuine hope (if not expectation) for the first time in many years away from home. Nobody who saw it will ever forget the abomination of the first ball bowled by Harmison four years ago, a car-crash illustration of the pressure sport can bring to bear. Watch once more, if you dare.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7Y6T44tzIc

This time the pressure is on Australia and specifically on Ponting whose future role in international captaincy, perhaps cricket as a whole, depends upon beating England in this series.

So who is going to help Ponting? First and foremost Ponting himself I expect. In this series he'll go past 12,500 runs and 150 tests, such experience you cannot (thankfully) buy in the international arena. Without doubt one of the modern 'greats' Ponting can almost certainly be relied upon to guts it out more than anyone and I reckon he's a snip at 4-1 with William Hill to be Australia's top batsman. However, Ponting will also go past 36 in this series and knows he invites criticism at home with every wrong field placing let alone every defeat. If let down by those around him it's not impossible to envisage Ponting's concentration finally giving in too and without his runs Australia will face almost inevitable defeat.

Australia's batting is dependent on a good start from the openers (they probably do think themselves lucky they aren't New Zealand http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/stats/index.html?class=1;filter=advanced;orderby=fow_score;partnership_wicketmax1=1;partnership_wicketval1=partnership_wicket;spanmin1=15+jun+2004;spanval1=span;team=5;template=results;type=fow;view=innings). But I do expect a good start. Katich and Watson may not be Hayden and Langer but they are a solid opening pair. Someone (Anderson?) needs to get into Watson in particular because once set he doesn't seem to have too many problems until he reaches 'the nervous nineties' (out three times in 39 innings). Katich has these problems too being twice dismissed on 99 and once on 98. But those are nice problems to have.

Of far more concern to Ponting will be the form (not to mention fitness) of Clarke, Hussey and North. With barely a good score between them since March Australia has the appearance of a weak underbelly in the middle order. That said, Clarke in particular has often shone brightest at home and none of these batsmen can be taken lightly. (Apart from North perhaps...)

In the same vein, the loss to Australia's bowling attack cannot be over-estimated. Bollinger, Hilfenhaus, Johnson and Siddle are from another planet to McGrath, Gillespie, Lee and Warne. The omission of Hauritz in order to include a rookie spinner  (Xavier Doherty who has 84 first class wickets at 48) speaks volumes about the dearth of talent in the wake of Shane Warne. Bollinger might be worth a shilling at 5-1 with Ladbrokes to be top Aussie wicket-taker in the series even though he is a late omission from the First Test - but if does finish up top of the Aussie pile then expect Australia to have lost the series. More than ever it seems all Australia is willing a return to form for Mitchell Johnson. Personally I wouldn't hold my breath on that one.

Keep it down Mr Strauss

Which is probably just as well for England. Being a life-long sufferer of England batting collapses I know when not to crow too early. So, it seems, does Andrew Strauss. I like the man. His predecessor, Michael Vaughan, became a bit too vocal in the latter stages of his captaincy, drunk on the success of regaining the Ashes in 2005. Strauss has more nous. He manages to retain perspective without slipping into insipid blandness while still giving the impression he knows, secretly almost, that he is capable of punishing high-class bowling attacks at will. And this, remember, is not a high-class bowling attack. By acting as he has Strauss has ensured the pressure remains on Ponting and his team rather than entirely on the shoulders of the man bowling the first ball at Brisbane. Pity Vaughan didn't do the same for Harmison last time around.

Strauss is also 4-1 with William Hill to be top run scorer for his team. Certainly a better bet than the 4-1 on offer for the increasingly fragile ego at number four. Those looking for value surely won't look beyond the 6-1 on offer for Bell at Paddy Power but being a career long critic of the man I couldn't possibly advise that. If England go to pieces in Brisbane and lose heavily then those with a speculative punt on Eoin Morgan (not playing at Brisbane but 20-1 with Ladbrokes, Victor Chandler, Stan James and others) might still be laughing come the end of the Fifth test. Trott, Pietersen, Bell and Collingwood all know they are playing for their place with every innings such is the pressure being applied by the young Irishman.

Let's hope the pressure works. England's batting cannot afford to be dodgy. To win these Ashes they will have to score runs, lots of runs, on at least two or three occasions. Of  less concern is their bowling attack of which new found inspiration Graeme Swann is rightly the pick of the crop. England's slow bowlers have not had the best of times abroad in the Ashes but frankly that's because they have mostly been sub-standard for years. Swann, however his reinvention has come about, is anything but sub-standard and seems to revel a good scrap. For every Monty Panesar fan who wishes him the best of luck in coming back to form (and I'm one of them) I'll show you the same fan being equally relieved and effusive about the resurgence of Swann. Thirty wickets between them at the SCG and the MCG would be just dandy. Back in the real world expect Broad to be successful (and garner respect from begrudging Aussies) for his aggression and hope that Jimmy Anderson puts his poor away Test match record to bed. I'm not so confident about Anderson but am rapidly becoming a fan of Tim Bresnan who is a remarkable 70-1 on Betfair or 33-1 with the more conventional totesport to be top England bowler.

The only discipline in the ascendance throughout the two teams is the bowling of England. Is this enough to sway the Ashes England's way? I don't think so. Australia at home are still a very tough nut to crack and for all their failings have only lost three Tests out of 17 played at home since the retirement of Hayden and McGrath. Only South Africa have won a series here in that time and that was only a three match affair. The romantic inside me would love to say 3-2 England. The ever-suffering England follower might say a more realistic 3-1 Australia (9-1 with Stan James).

Planet Geli's Tips Not To Follow


Top Aussie batsman (series) Ponting 10pts (4-1)
Top Aussie bowler (series)   Bollinger 5pts (10-1) Siddle 5pts (7-1)
Top England batsman (series) Strauss 10pts (4-1) Morgan 10pts (20-1)
Top England bowler (series) Swann  10pts (5-4) Broad 10pts (4-1) Bresnan 5pts (70-1)
Series correct score Australia 3-1 10pts (9-1) Australia 2-1 10pts (8-1)
Player of the series Ponting 10pts (10-1) Strauss 10pts (14-1)

(For full odds comparisons see www.oddschecker.com)